Trump’s Polling Prospects with and without Third Party Candidates
Recent polling data has provided a comprehensive look at the current state of the presidential race that includes the usual Trump and Biden, but the other third party long shot candidates: Robert Kennedy, Jill Stein, and Dr. Cornel West. Here’s an in-depth analysis of the findings:
Trump Leads in Key Scenarios
The polling results reveal that former President Donald Trump holds a lead over President Joe Biden in direct head-to-head matchups and even when third-party candidates like Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Jill Stein, and Cornel West are included. The only scenario where Biden edges out Trump is when Stein and West are excluded, leaving a three-way race between Trump, Biden, and Kennedy.
Kennedy’s Influence
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. emerges as a significant factor in the race, particularly in battleground states. He draws 5 percent of support away from Trump and 2 percent from Biden, effectively costing Trump 3 points in these crucial areas. Nationally, Kennedy’s impact is insignificant, but the electoral college system means his influence in specific states could determine the overall outcome.
State-by-State Breakdown
Trump is currently leading or tied in seven states he lost in the 2020 election. If the remaining states vote as they did in 2020, Trump will need to secure 35 of the 90 electoral votes from these seven states. His path to victory could involve winning four out of the seven highlighted states or securing major wins in Pennsylvania and Georgia. A noteworthy aspect is that despite the label of “convicted felon” stemming from his recent legal battles, Trump’s support remains resilient. This suggests that a significant portion of voters see the use of the legal system against a political opponent as a greater threat to democracy than Trump’s alleged crimes. Most Americans did not follow the Trump trial, signaling the now guilty verdict having no downside for Trump outside of time spent in the courtroom and not on the campaign trail.
Impact of Vice-Presidential Choices
Non-public polls indicate that most of Trump’s potential vice-presidential picks slightly decrease his polling numbers, with two notable exceptions: Former Congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard and South Carolina Senator Tim Scott. These two candidates appear to bolster Trump’s appeal, according to the article. For now, Tulsi appears to have been ruled out for VP and Senator Scott is still a top contender. Nobody knows, and this is really all speculation until Trump ultimately weighs in or we start to see movement in one direction.
Stein and West’s Role
The inclusion of Jill Stein and Cornel West in the race benefits Trump by pulling 3 percent of Biden’s support in key states without affecting Trump’s numbers. This suggests that while the presence of multiple candidates could have significantly altered the 2020 race, it plays a different role in the current election cycle. If Kennedy alone remains on the ballot, Trump’s support could drop by about 3 points in the battleground states, potentially putting him behind in four of the seven crucial states.
Source: News Max
While the election is still some time away, and much can change, these polls provide a snapshot of the current political landscape when including third party candidates. Trump’s path to victory appears viable in several scenarios, but the presence of third-party candidates and the choice of vice-presidential running mates will be critical factors in shaping the outcome. We still have five months and so much can change.
