After the 2023 redistricting battle reshaped Wisconsin’s political map, Democrats made significant gains in the Assembly, chipping away at Republican strength in the Senate. With the GOP now holding just an 18–15 edge in the upper chamber, Democrats are openly talking about the possibility of flipping control in 2026—a scenario that seemed far-fetched only a few years ago when Republicans had a veto-proof majority in the Senate. The newly drawn boundaries have created more competitive districts, and both parties are zeroing in on a handful of races that could decide the balance of power in Madison.
The Senate is the biggest prize. Republicans’ narrow advantage is shifting and control of the Senate will come through Milwaukee’s suburban and urban areas. That path runs through districts like those represented by Sen. Van Wanggaard and Sen. Rob Hutton, both Republicans facing tough re-election fights in newly drawn, bluer districts. The Assembly is projected to stay in Republicans hands but the toughest fights will be also in Milwaukee areas with Rep. Jessie Rodriquez and Bob Donovan.
At the top of the watch list is the 5th Senate District, currently represented by Republican Sen. Rob Hutton. The district includes Wauwatosa, West Allis, Brookfield, Elm Grove, and portions of Waukesha County—suburban areas that have shifted steadily toward Democrats in recent election cycles. Hutton, a business executive and former Assembly member, is known for his pro-business record and fiscal conservatism.
However, he faces a strong challenger in Democratic Rep. Robyn Vining, a progressive lawmaker from Wauwatosa who flipped Hutton’s old Republican Assembly seat in 2018 by a narrow 0.40%. Vining announced her Senate run in July 2025, instantly turning the 5th District into one of the most high-profile contests in the state. She has built her profile around DEI initiatives and mental health funding for K-12, LGBTIA, the UW System and adults with disabilities. While she has never had any significant legislation signed into law, during her tenure she has focused on mental health funding for LGBTIA+ community, adult changing stations, and gun control policies.
Vining won’t be alone in the Democratic primary. Sarah Harrison, a Brookfield small business owner who ran unsuccessfully for the Assembly in 2024, entered the race in June. Harrison’s platform focuses on restoring reproductive rights and protecting Wisconsin’s natural resources.
Sen. Van Wanggaard’s district in Racine and Kenosha counties is another key Senate battleground. A former police officer, Wanggaard has long been a prominent voice for law enforcement and conservative policies. However, the new district lines have pulled in more Democratic-leaning areas, creating a competitive environment. Democrats will likely pour resources into the race, betting that national political trends and local turnout could be enough to flip the seat.
In the Assembly, Republican Rep. Bob Donovan’s seat in the 61st District is also drawing attention. Covering Greendale, Hales Corners, most of Greenfield, and parts of southwest Milwaukee, the district has a mix of working-class neighborhoods and suburban communities. (RELATED: Donovan Demands Action as Milwaukee Cops Hit Crisis Point)
Donovan, a former Milwaukee alderman known for his outspoken advocacy on public safety, has confirmed he will seek re-election. His tenure has focused heavily on addressing staffing shortages in the Milwaukee Police Department and promoting tougher crime policies—issues that have resonated with his base.
However, Democrats believe the new maps make Donovan’s seat more competitive and are eyeing it as a potential pickup. A well-funded challenger with strong ties to the community could make inroads, especially if Democrats can energize turnout in Milwaukee’s southwest side and parts of Greenfield that have trended their way in recent cycles. Donovan had two tough races against former school board member, Luann Bird. Donovan won both races by narrow margins.
Rep. Jessie Rodriguez, representing parts of Oak Creek and South Milwaukee, is another Republican who could face a serious challenge. Rodriguez has built her brand on education reform and fiscal conservatism, but her district has seen demographic changes that favor Democrats. With the party looking to expand beyond Milwaukee’s core, Rodriguez’s seat is likely to be a top target in the Assembly.
The stakes in 2025 go well beyond individual districts. Tens of millions of dollars in outside spending are expected to pour into Wisconsin as both parties view the Senate majority as the ultimate prize. This fight will unfold alongside an open race for a new governor, putting even more national attention — and money — on the state. (RELATED: Out-of-State Billionaires Propel Wisconsin Democratic Fundraising Surge)
Control of the Senate will likely be the focal point of the upcoming election. The outcome could shift the balance of power on the powerful Joint Finance Committee, Wisconsin’s budget-writing panel. If Democrats retake the Senate, the current 12–4 Republican majority on the committee would become an 8–8 split, stripping Republicans of a key tool they have relied on for the past eight years to remove or rewrite major provisions from a Democratic Governor budget.
