Robert Kennedy is significantly impacting the 2024 Presidential election, drawing nearly four points away from Donald Trump in Pennsylvania and giving Kamala Harris a crucial lead. According to RealClearPolitics polls from the final week of July, Harris now holds a 266-262 edge in the electoral college.
In a head-to-head matchup, Trump leads Harris by two points in Pennsylvania. However, in a five-way race including Kennedy, Jill Stein, and Cornel West, Harris gains the lead. With Harris already ahead, the potential selection of Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro as her VP could further hinder Trump’s chances in the state. If Pennsylvania solidifies for Harris, the race may come down to Wisconsin.
Wisconsin is currently the only state where the candidates are within one point of each other, meaning it could determine the election outcome. If Trump wins Wisconsin, he could secure a 272-266 victory, but if Harris wins, she will achieve a 276-262 victory.
This analysis is based on polling averages from RealClearPolitics and the assumption that the one percent of voters supporting West and Stein would likely swing to Harris in a two-way race. This same methodology accurately predicted Trump’s upset victory in 2016 and his loss in 2020, considering the likely impact of spoiler candidates and insights from door-to-door canvassing.
Historically, Republicans have struggled in Wisconsin, with a 1-16 record for GOP candidates in presidential, gubernatorial, and U.S. Senate races, except for Ron Johnson, Scott Walker, and Tommy Thompson. For Democrats, the concern lies in the strong performance of Republican challengers in 2022, particularly Joe Lombardo in Nevada and Tim Michels in Wisconsin. If Pennsylvania goes to Harris, Republicans will need Trump to win in states where these challengers had their best showings to secure 278 electors.
Even if Nevada passes the Final 5 initiative in November to prevent spoilers, it won’t take effect in time for this election. Therefore, Trump must win five-way races in Nevada and Wisconsin, despite votes potentially being lost to Kennedy or Libertarian candidate Chase Oliver. Oliver, who has praised Trump as a disruptor, might attract votes from Trump, benefiting Harris.
The dynamic nature of the election means circumstances can change. Republicans hope Harris’s surge mirrors Sarah Palin’s in 2008, which initially boosted McCain-Palin before negative ads diminished her favorability. Democrats, on the other hand, hope to capitalize on the 25 percent of voters who view both Trump and Biden unfavorably, expecting them to turn to a new choice if one of the two is removed.
Currently, Trump leads in a two-way race in Pennsylvania. When supporters of Kennedy, Stein, West, and potentially Oliver are asked to choose between the top two, Trump wins. However, in a five-way race, a majority isn’t necessary, and Harris secures a plurality due to Kennedy siphoning votes from Trump while Stein and West take fewer votes from Harris.
The coming weeks will determine if Harris’s lead in Pennsylvania holds and if Trump can regain ground. If Harris secures Pennsylvania with the help of a strong VP pick or other factors, the election could hinge on Wisconsin. Our team’s door-to-door canvassing efforts in Wisconsin and Nevada, the top-performing states for gubernatorial challengers in 2022, could be pivotal.
You can explore different electoral scenarios and create your own map at 270toWin.
