A recent AARP poll conducted in Wisconsin reveals that former President Donald Trump holds a significant lead over President Joe Biden among likely voters following the recent presidential debate. The poll shows Trump ahead by 6 points on the full ballot, with 44% support compared to Biden’s 38%. Third-party candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. garners 9% of the vote, other candidates secure 4%, and 5% of voters remain undecided.
In a head-to-head matchup, Trump’s lead extends to 5 points, with 50% support against Biden’s 45%.
Voter Demographics and Trends:
Trump’s lead is consistent across different age groups, though the data reveals distinct voting behaviors:
– Among voters under 50, Trump maintains a mid-single-digit lead on the full ballot but faces a tighter race in the head-to-head scenario, leading Biden by only 1 point.
– Voters aged 18-34 show a unique trend: while they favor Trump by 6 points on the full ballot, they lean slightly towards Biden by 2 points in a direct contest. Additionally, a significant 27% of this age group opts for third-party candidates.
– Within the 50+ demographic, Trump enjoys strong support from voters aged 50-64. However, the race is highly competitive among voters aged 65 and older.
Party Consolidation and Independents:
Trump’s advantage is partly due to stronger consolidation among Republican voters compared to Biden’s support from Democrats. Furthermore, Trump holds a slight edge among independent voters.
Gender and Regional Gaps:
The poll highlights notable gender and regional disparities:
– A widening gender gap exists, with women leaning towards Biden and men favoring Trump by a larger margin.
– Regionally, Trump leads by a substantial 23 points among rural voters. Conversely, Biden has a 13-point advantage with urban voters. Suburban voters remain a critical battleground, showing no clear preference for either candidate.
Educational Attainment Gap:
An educational attainment gap of approximately 40 points, even larger than the gender gap, further distinguishes voter preferences, with Biden 20 points ahead of college educated voters.
This poll indicates a competitive race with significant third-party influence, especially among younger voters.
For more detailed insights and analysis, visit the AARP website and RealClearPolitics.
